LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — There are dozens of fascinating college basketball stories to read this time of year, but there was one tweet that stopped me Friday afternoon.
Evan Miyakawa, the creator of a popular basketball analytics site, ran a simulation of the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Guess which team won?
Alabama, the same deep and talented squad team that took down Kentucky for the third time this season Friday night in the quarterfinals of the Southeastern Conference tournament at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
The final score was 99-70, Kentucky’s largest defeat this season. In fact, it was UK's largest margin of defeat since the Wildcats fell to Duke, 118-84, in their season opener on Nov. 6, 2018.
"We were frustrated by our performance tonight," UK coach Mark Pope said. "I was disappointed. The whole night we were a little stagnant in terms of playing in the character of the way we play,"
With a team ranked No. 5 in the AP poll, Nate Oats looks like a coach who can take his team to a second consecutive NCAA Final Four. If the Crimson Tide win two more this weekend, they’ll earn their third SEC Tournament title in five seasons.
That’s the level of competition the Wildcats had to face in their second SEC Tournament game — a team that has seven losses and still might be a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky lost to the Crimson Tide by five in Rupp Arena in January. They lost by 13 in Tuscaloosa in late February. This time it was a stinging 29-point loss as Alabama posted a three-peat on UK for the first time in program history.
How were Mark Pope and the Wildcats going to handle Alabama playing without 40% of their most productive starting lineup?
Without guard Jaxon Robinson, who was declared out for the season two weeks ago.
Without guard Lamont Butler, who missed the game after suffering another shoulder injury after playing only eight minutes against Oklahoma Thursday night. (Pope said after the game that he expected Butler to be available next week and thought he might be ready in the second half Friday night.)
And without an effective Otega Oweh, who missed nearly six minutes midway through the first half after catching the right elbow of Alabama guard Labaron Philon on the left side of his face and lip, creating a bloody mess that resulted in a trip to the locker room and stitches.
It did not result in a flagrant foul because a review of the play convinced the officials that Philon was merely making a twisting basketball move to the rim.
Oweh made only one field goal while scoring 4 points in nine minutes in the first half. He wasn’t much better in the second half. He looked disoriented and shaken, missing both of his field goal attempts while converting six free throws.
"Otega battled through a bunch of stuff tonight," Pope said. "He's one of the guys that we rely on. When we're good, we have everybody playing well."
Over the season, Oweh, Butler and Robinson gave Kentucky 41 points per game.
Friday night the Wildcats got 8 combined points from those three guys.
Without experience and toughness in the backcourt, UK suffered 16 turnovers that Alabama turned into 29 points. With subs moved into the starting lineup, UK bench players were outscored by the Alabama reserves, 44-9. It was thorough domination because the Crimson Tide outscored UK, 46-30, in the paint, too.
Andrew Carr scored 18 points to lead Kentucky. Amari Williams had 16 and Travis Perry added 11. But the Wildcats made only 37.4% of their field goal attempts, going 5 of 19 from distance.
Kentucky never led but the Wildcats trailed by only four points with two minutes to play in the first half. The Crimson Tide stretched their lead to 45-38 at halftime.
The second half was an avalanche of Alabama offense. SEC Network sideline reporter Holly McGrath reported that during one timeout Pope yelled at his team while questioning their commitment to playing defense.
"I hope it's really hard (to put this performance out of mind)," Pope said. "Because this is not OK for us.
"I hope it's really hard. But we're here to do hard things. Like, that's why we're here. That's what we're chasing is hard things. I hope it's really hard and that we do it."
Bama shot nearly 59% in the second half, outscoring UK, 54-32. The Crimson Tide made nine shots from distance in the second half, UK made two. It was another 40-minute snapshot of the challenge of playing in a league that will likely put at least 13 and perhaps 14 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
"We talked about it since the beginning," Pope said. "It's either going to tear you to shreds or it's going to make you better. I think either team is going to decide which is going to be their path."
The Wildcats will carry a 22-11 record into Selection Sunday. On the strength of their 11 Quad I victories, they are projected to be a No. 3 seed.
"We're looking in the mirror, try to continue to get better and focus on the NCAA Tournament," Carr said.
They’ll need Oweh to regroup and Butler to mend to make an impact in the NCAA Tournament.
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